Deep Macro Investment Philosophy
At Pinestar Capital Advisors, investment decisions and recommendations are guided by what we call a “deep-macro, hyper-realist” investment philosophy. Like other macro advisors, we continually analyze the big picture of global macroeconomic, political, cultural, demographic and technological trends that are likely to shape the investment landscape over time and adjust clients’ portfolios accordingly.
Beyond forward-looking assessments, our investment thinking is grounded in a comprehensive view of history – not simply the last half-century of U.S. economic developments, but also lessons from the entire course of global human affairs. We believe it is essential to examine fundamental trends in economics, finance, technology, philosophy – and even human nature itself – as far back as we can, to identify patterns that inform how the future may unfold. No investment can be fully understood without an appreciation for the greater circumstances surrounding it.
We consider questions such as: what properties make an investment valuable in the first place, and how durable or context sensitive are those properties? What analogies does history offer in evaluating the prospects of a particular company or investment? How and when does a traditional paradigm transform into something “new?” Exploring these foundational questions and applying a thoughtful, pragmatic knowledge of history, while staying informed about a wide range of current events, characterizes Pinestar Capital’s deep macro approach to investing.
Hyper-Realist Aspirations + Independent Market Perspective
Key to successful investing in our view is to prioritize a hyper-realist and independent market perspective. That means focusing on fundamentals and process over developing attachments to specific outcomes. It means not becoming entrenched in a particular investment or investment thesis, and maintaining well-researched, strongly independent viewpoints, even when they are sometimes perceived as unpopular or contrarian. It means continuously welcoming new information, especially if the new information conflicts with previous assumptions. It also means resisting the temptation to fit research observations into a preconceived belief structure – of how things are or ought to be – and instead cultivating a pure and relentless curiosity about the underlying factors that truly drive investment results.
This is not an easy or straightforward assignment at a time when truth is regularly distorted for profit. We recognize that disinformation today has become both an exquisite artform and full-fledged science. To counter such headwinds, for each investment or investment strategy, we attempt to dispassionately absorb large amounts of data from a diverse array of sources, and then filter everything through a probabilistic lens. In other words, except for death and taxes, we see very few certainties – rather only a spectrum of possible investment outcomes to be responsibly managed in accordance with modern portfolio theory. No one can perfectly predict the future, but by tirelessly researching and synthesizing as much information as we can, Pinestar Capital gives our clients a clearer view of it.